How the absence of fans impacted home advantage in the Premier League matches?

 How the absence of fans impacted home advantage in the Premier League matches?

It's seven months since fans were allowed to attend a Premier League match.

While reduced numbers of supporters have started to return to stadiums in some countries, such as Germany and France, the Premier League remains behind closed doors.

Initially it looked as though English top-flight clubs would be able to welcome fans back with reduced capacities in October, but with coronavirus infections on the rise again in England, those plans were put on the backburner as the British government tightened restrictions again.

A petition – which has since been backed by the EFL, Manchester United, Brighton Hove Albion and Sheffield United, among others – hopes to encourage the government to reconsider their previous judgement in an attempt to ease the financial worries of smaller clubs.

Just because fans have been stuck to their armchairs at home rather than in the stadiums doesn't mean talking points have disappeared, however, and a common conclusion many have come to since the Premier League returned behind closed doors in June is that home advantage has diminished.

With that in mind, we investigated using Opta data…

Home wins at a similar level

First of all, for this investigation we have crunched the numbers for all Premier League results up to June 2020 and compared them with all results since June, when England's elite division resumed.

With that in mind, we are of course looking at two hugely different numbers – there have been 130 matches since the start of June 2020, while there were 10,794 before then.

The results show that, on average, there has been a decrease in home wins since June, but, somewhat surprisingly, it's not a big drop-off.

In fact, it only decreased from 46.2 per cent to 45.4 per cent. So, while we are seeing fewer home wins on average, the difference is small.

Away wins increase by a third

The biggest change, however, is with regards to away wins, where we are seeing a significant increase.

Matches with fans in attendance have an average of 27.6 per cent of away wins, but without spectators that goes to 36.9 per cent – that's almost a 10 per cent increase on before.

This is, of course, impacting on draws, which are down to 17.7 per cent from 26.1 per cent.

It means that matches behind closed doors are far more likely to see away wins than they are stalemates – there have been 48 away wins since the restart and just 23 draws.

The results also suggest visiting teams are benefiting from greater focus without the distractions or pressure of home supporters.

Goals and cards

Across the board goals have increased in frequency since fans were told to stay away.

There have been on average three goals every game in the current state, an increase of 0.3 from before, though the biggest overall change is reflected by away goals.

Home teams are conceding on average 1.4 goals per game at the moment, up from 1.1 prior to June, while goals scored are only up to 1.6 from 1.5.

While these figures may not sound like a big deal in isolation, the 144 goals scored in 2020-21 equates to 3.79 per game, the highest such ratio in the top flight since 1931.

And, curiously, it appears referees have become stricter on the whole with regards to minor offences without fans constantly dishing out abuse at the man in the middle.

Yellow card frequency has increased from 1.3 per game to 1.5, though red cards have decreased on average – there were 0.06 per game, but that figure is 0.05 for games behind closed doors.

As you can see, so-called 'home advantage' does still appear to be alive, with home teams taking at least a point in 63 per cent of matches, but away victories have accounted for over a third of all matches since the start of June.

That is a significant boost, suggesting 2020-21 looks set to be particularly anomalous if it continues without fans in attendance - but don't expect Manchester United to lose 6-1 at Old Trafford every other week.

Wales vs England: The stars ready to roar for Southgates 3 Lions 

England tackle Wales on Thursday night in the first of three games in the space of a week. 

With a 30-man squad at his disposal for the hectic schedule, Gareth Southgate is likely to take the opportunity to keep his players fresh by rotating them. 

And the absence of Ben Chilwell, Tammy Abraham and Jadon Sancho, who must sit out the Wembley showdown with the Welsh after breaking coronavirus protocols, could result in some fresh faces being handed starts.  

We have picked out four players ready to make a mark on the international stage after strong starts to the season with their respective clubs.

West Ham's Mr Versatile

Declan Rice excelled in the middle of the park as West Ham deployed a 5-4-1 formation in impressive league victories over Wolves and Leicester.

Southgate is known to be open to playing three centre-backs, meaning the 21-year-old's seamless adaptation to the Hammers’ new system should stand him in good stead to finally show his worth in an England shirt.

The versatile star was heavily linked with a summer switch to Chelsea but will be fully focused on carrying his domestic form onto the international stage now that the transfer window has slammed shut. 

The inspiration behind Villa's revival

In-form Aston Villa skipper Jack Grealish simply cannot be overlooked by the Three Lions any longer. 

The midfielder, 25, has been instrumental in Villa's stunning start to the campaign, which has seen them win three from three in the Premier League. 

He also became the first player in the league's history to have a hand in five goals in a single game as Dean Smith's men hammered Liverpool 7-2.

Grealish (pictured above) weighed in with two goals and three assists against the champions at Villa Park — suggesting this is the time for him to shine on the international stage. 

The young Lion keen to impress

Put simply, Bukayo Saka is loving life under Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta. 

The 19-year-old academy product continues to impress and it was no surprise to see him named among Southgate's squad given the quality he possesses with his left foot. 

A winger by trade, Saka's versatility means he is also a more than capable back-up to Chilwell as England's left wing-back. 

He capped a memorable week and his fifth appearance of the season by scoring Arsenal's opener in the 2-1 win over Sheffield United last Sunday.

Ancelotti's red-hot hitman

Dominic Calvert-Lewin celebrated his maiden senior call-up with the opening goal in Everton’s 4-2 victory over Brighton last Saturday — taking his tally to nine in just six games in all competitions. 

The 23-year-old striker is thriving under Toffees boss Carlo Ancelotti and you would not bet against him finding the net if Southgate hands him a first cap against Wales. 

While Harry Kane is unlikely to be dislodged as England's leading striker in the near future, Calvert-Lewin will push the Tottenham star every step of the way if he can maintain his sensational form. 

England vs Wales: Who will shine for Giggsy in the absence of Bale?

Wales must do without Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey when they tackle England at Wembley on Thursday night. 

Tottenham star Bale, 31, is not yet fit following an ankle injury and Juventus midfielder Ramsey, 29, is unable to join the squad as he is isolating due to two members of the club's staff testing positive for coronavirus.

With his star men ruled out, Ryan Giggs will need someone to step up and claim the spotlight.

And we have picked out four members of the Manchester United legend's squad who could do just that against the Three Lions. 

The hightly-rated Chelsea youngster

Ethan Ampadu is likely to have the unenviable task of keeping Harry Kane, Marcus Rashford and Co quiet at Wembley — but there is every indication he is up to the challenge. 

A season-long switch to Sheffield United has provided Ampadu (pictured above) with the opportunity to shine in the Premier League and the Chelsea youngster, 20, will relish the chance to show his ability on the big stage. 

Most comfortable at centre-back, the Exeter academy graduate has been tipped for the top. 

Midfield marvel shining in the Championship

Bournemouth’s David Brooks is likely to be on the radar of a host of Premier League clubs prior to the October 16 deadline for top-flight sides to do business with EFL clubs. 

The tricky midfielder, 23, has had plenty of injury problems over the past two years but possesses the quality to unlock England’s defence. 

A joy to watch on the ball, Brooks could be the key to an upset if Wales can feed him. 

United's rough diamond

Away from the pressure cooker that is Manchester United, Dan James will be keen to remind fans of the form that landed him a £15million move to Old Trafford in June 2019. 

When Wales look to hurt teams on the counter, the former Swansea man's rapid pace is enough to cause even the best defenders problems. 

Bale’s absence is likely to mean Gareth Southgate's men will have to pay particular attention to the threat posed by the 22-year-old winger. 

Cardiff's old-fashioned striker

A late bloomer having risen through the ranks from non-league football, 28-year-old Kieffer Moore has scored three goals in seven games for Wales since making his debut in late 2019. 

Standing at 6ft 5in, the Cardiff ace is an old-fashioned striker who poses a real threat in the air.

And England will have to keep a close eye on Moore, who has netted twice for the Bluebirds this season, during set-pieces around the box.